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S&PAbove we have a chart of the S&P 500 dating all the way back to 1997. For the past 16 years we can see the S&P has been channeling between 1550 and 800. During that period we experienced the tech bubble, the housing bubble, and the financial crisis. The rapid rise that we see beginning from March ’09 is due to low interest rates and monetary easing by the Fed. I feel this as an artificial appreciation in the market. We have seen 3 rounds of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008. The latest has the Federal Reserve buying $85 billion in bonds every month. All this buying of debt has been pushing the markets higher. As we’re seeing an improvement in the economy the Fed has been hinting towards ending its easing policies. Although we did break through the all time highs, the S&P looks ripe for a downturn according to this chart. It’s not a matter of if but when the Fed decides to end its easing policies, we can definitely expect a sell-off in the market. This chart shows us we could possibly expect a reversal, the catalyst may be the ending of QE3.

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